Bitcoin halving is 500 days away, which means the impact of a block reward cut will begin to have an impact in the not too distant future.
Halve The Reward, Moon The Price?
A year to the day that the Bitcoin price 00 touched its biggest USD value ever – over $20,000 on some exchanges – community pundits are focusing on the potential for a rebirth in the mid-term.
As Bitcoinist has reported this year, block reward halving events tend to foreshadow serious changes in price activity.
With BTC/USD down 85 percent in 2018, hopes that the next such event in 2020 will spark a new era for HODLers remain high.
“Historically major pumps happen a few months out…will history repeat itself?” trader and Bitcoinist contributor Jake the Crypto King questioned in response to a reminder about the block halving posted on Twitter by Bitcoin evangelist Alan Silbert.
The Halving Effect on Price
In August, analysis highlighted how dividing Bitcoin into periods between each block halving confirms price increase by an order of magnitude on each occasion.
Historically, Bitcoin halving day does not immediately impact the price of Bitcoin. Instead, the effects are felt sometimes months ahead, followed by a surge in price in the following months. The chart below, courtesy of @100trillionUSD, illustrates what kind of price action BTC could see in the following year and a half.
“In the months leading up to the last two halving events, we saw bitcoin’s price steadily trend upward, and then power higher following the reward halving,” Blockchain’s head of research Garrick Hileman had said in May.
The situation could meanwhile change much sooner than May 2, 2020.
As others noted to Silbert, the incoming debut of various cryptocurrency products geared to Wall Street and institutional investors has the potential to diversify the number of Bitcoin users and the corresponding spread of bitcoins among them.
Intercontinental Exchange’s Bakkt platform, although delayed, should begin offering physically-delivered Bitcoin futures on January 24.
Despite mixed messages, Bakkt executives have recently also hinted a partnership with Starbucks will expand the number of opportunities for retail investors to use Bitcoin for point-of-sale transactions.
What do you think about the impact of the next Bitcoin block reward halving? Let us know in the comments below!
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