Bitcoin is 200 days before halving, a supply shock that historical patterns show that prices tend to rally, even clearing previous all-time highs once it happens. In a price chart shared by the “thescalpingpro” on X on October 9, the analyst appears to suggest that the world’s most valuable coin is in the early stages of not only breaking above 2021 highs but registering new highs after the network halves in 2024.
Early Signs Of Bull Rally: 200 Days Before Halving
Thus far, the trader notes that Bitcoin is down 60% from previous all-time highs in 2021. This formation, the analyst says, appears to replicate the same pattern before Bitcoin halved in 2019. Then, just like it is presently, the coin fell 60% from 2017 highs of around $20,000.
As historical pattern shows, Bitcoin prices tend to bounce back strongly after posting sharp losses from previous highs. These upswings are often accelerated by the halving event momentum, pushing prices further away from cyclical lows.
Every four years, Bitcoin halving occurs, where the reward for mining a Bitcoin block is reduced by half. This feature is built into the protocol to slow the issuance of new Bitcoin. Due to the decrease in the number of coins released to circulation during halving, inflation is reduced, which supports prices, as previous price action has shown.
Although the impact of halving has been well studied, the sequence of events preceding this event appears to be stirring demand. As aforementioned, 200 days before the 2016 and 2019 halvings, Bitcoin fell roughly 60% from all-time highs.
The asset’s prices are at a similar price point precisely 200 days before halving. For this “near-perfect” replication of events, “thescalpingpro” is bullish that the coin might follow a familiar pattern of past cycles.
Bitcoin Race To $48,000 Before Halving?
The spike to all-time highs and beyond, as previewed, is a scenario that could happen once the halving happens. Before then, however, another analyst is convinced the coin could rally to $48,000.
The analysis is based on crucial support and resistance levels formed by the Fibonacci retracement levels. The analyst is convinced that the coin will retest the 61.8% of the swing high low of the recent 2021 to 2022 range, placing Bitcoin at $48,000 once it recovers.
The race to this level will be further driven by “halving momentum” and the “bear-to-bull transition from various indicators,” including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and the on-balance volume of major exchanges, which appear oversold.
Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView