October is historically a positive month for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin typically experiences an upward trend in October. Various factors combined to push Bitcoin to new heights this month. Historically, since 2013, Bitcoin has closed each October with positive returns and only 2 with slight negative outcomes.
Along with February, October is considered one of the most bullish months for Bitcoin (BTC).
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Due to statistical trends like this, many refer to October as “Uptober,” a playful term hinting at a bullish October. As CriptoNoticias reported, investors seem to be anticipating a price increase, fueling accumulation. No one wants to miss the rally.
Institutional Interest in Bitcoin ETFs
A clear indicator of market sentiment is the flow of money in and out of Bitcoin ETFs. These financial products attract large institutional and corporate investors, which further drives price momentum.
The chart below, provided by SoSoValue, shows that US-traded Bitcoin ETFs have experienced seven consecutive days of positive inflows, meaning more money has entered than exited daily.
Reasons That Will Drive Bitcoin’s Price Increase
The outlook for Bitcoin in October is broadly positive, and many are anticipating a price surge. But will it happen? The thesis presented here argues that it will. There are several reasons why Bitcoin could reach new heights this month, possibly even hitting new all-time highs.
1. Market Expectations and Historical Trends
First, the expectations surrounding Bitcoin in October are significant. This anticipation could become a self-fulfilling prophecy—if everyone believes October will be bullish, investors will accumulate BTC, driving up the price due to simple supply and demand dynamics.
2. Six Months Post-Halving
October also marks six months since the last Bitcoin halving, which occurred in April 2024. Historically, about six months after a halving, Bitcoin has entered a strong upward trend, often reaching new price records.
If history repeats itself, October 2024 could see Bitcoin breaking out of the current sideways (and slightly downward) trend it’s been trapped in since March.
3. Lower Interest Rates
Another factor is the drop in interest rates in major economies like the U.S. and China.
When interest rates decline, government bonds—considered safe investments—become less attractive. This often drives investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and stocks, pushing their prices higher.
4. Global Economic Concerns
At the same time, there seems to be an emerging global economic crisis. Several analysts have pointed out weak points in the global economy. The deflation in China and the unofficial recession in the U.S. could lead investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin.
Notably, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with gold in recent weeks.
5. Upcoming U.S. Elections
Finally, let’s consider the upcoming U.S. presidential elections in November. Although Donald Trump initially stood out as the pro-Bitcoin candidate, Kamala Harris is also positioning herself as someone favorable to the cryptocurrency industry.
According to Geoff Kendrick, head of research at Standard Chartered Bank, Bitcoin is expected to reach new all-time highs by the end of the year, regardless of the election outcome. Investors may start positioning themselves in Bitcoin ahead of the potential price surge, making October bullish.
Bitcoin Needs to Break Its Downward Trend
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is still in a slightly downward trend that has persisted for some time. To shift upward, Bitcoin must break through the resistance zone where it’s currently stuck, doing so with enough volume.
If Bitcoin breaks through and holds above $68,000, investors will feel more confident, knowing that this area will act as a new support. If this happens, Bitcoin could be primed to reach new all-time highs above $74,000.
As CriptoNoticias recently highlighted, Bitcoin is currently following a “cup and handle” pattern, which is often seen as a bullish formation. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could be on track to hit $125,000 or higher in this market cycle.
Conclusion
October has a strong history of being a positive month for Bitcoin, and several factors suggest that 2024 will follow the same trend. Whether it’s historical performance, the aftermath of the halving, or macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin seems poised for growth.
Breaking key resistance levels could see Bitcoin reaching new heights and setting the stage for even greater gains.
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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to the author. The author’s opinion is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or financial advice under any circumstances.