The four-year cycle that has always characterized the bitcoin market remains intact, creating a sense of optimism.
Breaking above $65,000 represents a new technical scenario. According to analyst Scott Melker, known as “the wolf of all streets,” a bullish phenomenon known as “uptober” is on the horizon.
Given Bitcoin’s (BTC) current behavior, key months could be approaching for its investors. Melker states in his weekly report that he is “fully convinced that any drop is now a buying opportunity, should it occur.” He expresses optimism regarding Bitcoin’s performance.
As September comes to a close, a month historically known for poor average performance for Bitcoin, this year tells a different story. Initially, it appeared that bitcoin would face its usual difficulties during this time of year.
However, as the month nears its end, it has turned out to be a strong period for investors, with the price rising by 11% so far in September.
“Part of the reason I’m not surprised by this good outcome is that everyone in the sector agreed September would be a terrible month, and from the start, it seemed like that prophecy was coming true”.
In his view, this situation created the perfect opportunity for the market to jump ahead of the starting line. Currently, the prevailing sentiment in the market is that cryptocurrencies are poised for a surge in the fourth quarter of 2024.
This optimism is fueled by interest rate cuts in both the United States and China, along with the historical trend of this time of year being bullish as operations resume after summer in the northern hemisphere.
Melker emphasizes, “Uptober awaits us,” a term that combines “up” and “October,” indicating this month has historically closed with bitcoin on the rise.
However, the specialist reminds us that operations do not always unfold as the consensus expects. Therefore, he does not dismiss potential price retracements that investors can take advantage of if the bullish thesis continues.
Additionally, he contrasts that there is a distinction between consensus within the cryptocurrency space and outside of it. In this sense, he observes that, while there may be expectations for growth in altcoin ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana, this is not reflected externally.
“Solana and Ethereum may reach that point, but at this moment, bitcoin is the only asset that will grow regardless of the consensus we have about it internally,” he asserts from his perspective.
Regarding technical analysis, Melker warns that the four-year cycle remains intact, and any claims to the contrary are merely noise. Historically, every four years, bitcoin’s price tends to experience a bullish trend followed by a bearish one, with higher highs and higher lows each time.
The price began an upward trend nearly two years ago, entering a new cycle that peaked seven months ago at an all-time high of $73,700. Since then, it has experienced a sideways movement downward, similar to phases observed in the past.
This sideways movement is a sufficient catalyst to break upward, as it shows a solid floor to continue the bullish trend.
Additionally, the price is close to the all-time high of the previous cycle ($69,000), so he believes there is still room for gains in this cycle. “Anyone who thinks that $100,000 will be the peak of this cycle should think bigger,” he opines.
In conclusion, the good news is that Bitcoin has surpassed $65,000, a level that was viewed as resistance just a month ago. This, he explains, has ended the bearish structure of recording lower highs over the past seven months.