The digital currency bitcoin hit its latest in a series of records on Friday, as it extended an all-time high that has taken it up more than 500% this year alone. But what would it take for bitcoin to really rise?
That’s the question posed by Ben Carlson, director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management, who considered what it might take for the world’s largest cryptocurrency to essential break free of gravity altogether.
“In terms of asset allocation decisions, I see two scenarios that could potentially send Bitcoin into the stratosphere and make this a ginormous bubble,” Carlson wrote in a blog post. He didn’t define what price would qualify as being outside Earth’s atmosphere; bitcoin
BTCUSD, +4.08%
hit a record above $6,000 on Friday.
His first scenario involves bitcoin expanding beyond its current user base, which he described as “tech people and millennials.”
“If big-time institutional money makes an entrance things could get interesting,” he wrote, though he added that “because of the way institutional capital is deployed this is not a foregone conclusion.” An expanded investor base for bitcoin—one that could potentially include endowments, foundations, pensions, and family offices—could mean a surge in demand for the digital currency, one that could result in massive price moves given the inherently limited supply.
However, “portfolio changes in these funds are like turning around a battleship because of the politics and career risk involved,” Carlson wrote. “It will probably take decades for pensions to get involved but I wouldn’t be surprised if some nonprofits in the endowment world decided to dip their toe in the water.”
Such entities may be lured into bitcoin if the huge multiyear rally—a $1,000 investment in bitcoin back in 2010 would be worth tens of millions of dollars today—continues and “institutions get a bad case of FOMO,” Carlson speculated, using an acronym for “fear of missing out.”
An even bigger catalyst, however, could be a downturn in the U.S. stock market, which some investors see as likely given valuations that are stretched by many metrics.
“My hypothesis is we could see an influx of capital into this space if it turns out to be a diversifying asset during the next stock market downturn,” Carlson wrote. “If stocks get hit hard and bitcoin continues to rise, or just doesn’t fall, I could see this scenario getting the attention of some endowment funds.”
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He added, “If there was evidence that Bitcoin acted as a diversifying asset during a substantial stock market meltdown I’m guessing that could be enough to perk up the ears of some institutional investors. And once a few pull the trigger the herd mentality would kick in because there’s so much peer pressure among these funds.”
Whether those trends, if they were to occur, would take bitcoin “to the stratosphere” remains to be seen. But certainly many bitcoin enthusiasts already see it building on its massive gains. Cybersecurity legend John McAfee forecast that it could hit $500,000 within in three years, while one digital-currency executive expects the entire digital currency space to hit $5 trillion in market capitalization in the next 10 years, a target that would make each bitcoin unit $250,000. (Currently, the total industry market cap is $174.5 billion, with bitcoin providing about $100 billion of that.)
In an unscientific MarketWatch poll, nearly 60% of respondents predicted that bitcoin would see $30,000 before the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw 30,000. Bitcoin would need to rise by another 400% to hit that target, while the Dow, currently trading around 23,300, would need to gain about 28%.
What will happen first?
— Ryan Vlastelica (@RyanVlastelica) September 1, 2017